I have been fascinated with risk management (or better yet, management in the face of risk and uncertainty) throughout my career, beginning with my work on the potential for risk-sharing across emerging economies in the early 1970s (including an ill-fated attempt to spark an Andean Regional Investment Union); alternatives to general obligation (debt) financing for developing countries in the early 1980s; exchange risk management for firms (including the development of the concept of economic exposure); the concept of total risk management and risk-management as a core competency of firms in the 1990s; and the management of risk and complexity in major projects from the late 1990s through the present.

My research and teaching interests and publications lie in six related domains, centered on risk:

Current focus:

The global business of clean energy technology - the interplay of market, supply chain, and innovation platforms in determining the international projection and competitiveness of firms based in various regions. Current focus on wind, solar, grid storage.

Strategies/capabilities of successful multinationals from middle countries.

The relationship between risk, uncertainty, complexity and performance in major projects.


Global Strategy/ Risk Management

"Uncertainty and Risk in Global Supply Chains," forthcoming in Global Value Chains in a Changing World, eds. Deborah Emls and Partick Low, World Trade Organization, jointly with Fung Global Institute and Temasek Foundation Centre for Trade and Negotiations. Click here: MIT Sloan Research Paper No. 4991-13

"MIT Roundtable on Corporate Risk Management," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 2008 20(4).Click to pdf

“Embracing Risk as a Core Competence: The Case of CEMEX” (with Rafael Lucea) Click to pdf

“Risk and the Dynamics of Globalization,” in Birkinshaw, Ghoshal, Markides, Stopford, and Yip, eds., The Future of the Multinational Company (Chichester, England: Wiley, 2003). Click to pdf

"Rediscovering Functions in the MNC: The Role of Expertise in Firms' Responses to Shifting Exchange Rates," in Bartlett, Doz, and Hedlund, eds., Managing Global Firms.  (New York: Routledge, 1990). Click to pdf


Project Management/Risk

"Understanding the Impacts of Indirect Stakeholder Relationships - Stakeholder Value Network Analysis and Its Application to Large Engineering Projects," MIT Sloan School Working Paper 4978-12, July 2012. http://ssrn.com/abstract=2162037 (with Wen Feng, Edward F. Crawley, and Olivier L. de Weck)

"The Shaping of Large Engineering Projects," (with Roger Miller) forthcoming, International Handbook on Mega Projects, eds. Hugo Priemus and Bert van dee Wee, Edward Elgar.

"The House of Project Complexity - Understanding Complexity in Large Infrastructure Projects, " working paper to be presented at EPOS conference, July 2013 (with Vivek Sakhrani and Roger Miller). MIT Sloan Research Paper No. 5002-13.

“Evolving Strategy: Risk Management and the Shaping of Large Engineering Projects,” in Priemus, Flyvbjerg, and van Wee, eds., Decision-Making in Mega Projects: Cost Benefit Analysis, Planning, and Innovation. Transport Economics, Management and Policy, (Cheltenham UK, Northampton, MA, Edward Elgar, 2008) Click to pdf

Strategic Management of Large Engineering Projects: Shaping Institutions, Risks, and Governance (MIT Press, 2001) with Roger Miller. Click to view the book cover

“Understanding and Managing Risks in Large Engineering Projects,” International Journal of Project Management, 19 (2001) (with Roger Miller).  Click to pdf


Global Strategy

"The Evolution of EMNCS and EMNC Thinking: A Capabilities Perspective", MIT Sloan School Working Paper 5020-13, June 2013. http://ssrn.com/abstract=2298699

"Building Your Company's Capabilities Through Global Expansion," Sloan Management Review, Winter 2012. (with Rafel Lucea and Luis Vives)    

"Mexican Multinationals: Insights from CEMEX" in Ramamurti and Singh (eds.) Emerging Multinationals from Emerging Markets, (Cambridge University Press, 2008). (With Rafael Lucea) Click to pdf

"Frameworks for Global Strategis Analysis," Journal of Strategic Management Education, 2003 1(1). Click to pdf 

International Financial Management and Valuation

“Real Asset Valuation: A Back-to-Basics Approach,” Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Spring 2008, pp. 46-65. (with David Laughton and Raul Guerrero). Abstract

"Finance and International Business," in B. Toyne and D. Nigh, eds., International Business: An Emerging Vision, (Columbia, S.C., University of South Carolina Press, 1997).

“Incorporating Country Risk in the Valuation of Offshore Projects," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance (Fall 1996). Click to pdf

"Evaluating International Projects - An Adjusted Present Value Approach," in Capital Budgeting under Conditions of Uncertainty, R. Crum and F. Derkinderen, eds., (Amsterdam: Martinus Nijhoff, 1980). Click to pdf 

"World, Country, and Industry Relationships in Equity Returns: Implications for Risk Reduction through International Diversification, " Financial Analyst's Journal (January/February 1976).  Winner of Graham and Dodd Award. Click to pdf


Emerging Markets

"Financial Intermediation Beyond the Debt Crisis", (Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics, 1985) with J. Williamson. Click here

“En Defensa de una Unión Latinoamericana de Inversiones,” El Trimestre Económico, XLII (1) (Enero-Marzo 1975). Click to pdf

"International Portfolio Diversification: A Multivariate Analysis for a Group of Latin American Countries, "Journal of Finance (June, 1973). Click to pdf